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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-04-17T02:30:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-04-17T02:30Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45715/-1
CME Note: Slow, wide CME to the SE in GOES CCOR-1 and STEREO A COR2, not visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 yet due to a downlink gap. The source for this CME is likely a diffuse, very slow dimming, spanning a filament channel approximately ~S26E58 to ~S08E25 (center S17E41), observed starting around 2026-04-16T21:30Z and lasting 12+ hours in SDO AIA 171/193/304 as the dimming, field line movement, and double ribbon flare, but not observing the filament itself actually leaving the disk. A bright inner core follows the initial front likely from this same source, measuring ~210 km/s at S16E52 with a half-width 27 degrees.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-04-20T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45717/1
Model Inputs:
2026-04-17T02:30:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-48.0, Lat.=-17.0, Speed=260.0, HalfAngle=24.0, Time21.5=2026-04-17T14:40Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-04-20T18:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260417_144000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260417_144000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260417_144000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260417_144000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260417_144000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260417_144000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260417_144000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260417_144000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260417_144000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260417_144000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260417_144000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260417_144000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260417_144000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260417_144000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260417_144000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260417_144000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260417_144000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 76.60 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-04-17T13:24Z

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